WHAT will the world look like about a decade from now? Given that geopolitics, geo-economics, and technologies are evolving rapidly, the future is uncertain. However, there are trends that give us a clue regarding the direction of global geopolitics. Today, we are transitioning from a world order to disorder: major power rivalries are intensifying, global military expenditure is rising steeply, unilateralism is ascendant while multilateralism is in decline, and xenophobia is embedding itself in almost every country.
Four theatres of global contestation are contributing to the global disarray: Indo-Pacific (US-China competition), Europe (Russia-Ukraine war), Middle East (Palestine conflict, Israel-Iran tensions), and the Indian Ocean, where major powers including the US, UK, France, Australia, China and India want to enhance their presence. American maritime strategist Alfred Mahan had rightly predicted in the 19th century that the future of the 21st century would depend on whoever dominated the Indian Ocean.